The Carlyle Group, which is an $85 billion private equity powerhouse, recently published its annual report. It's a sobering document.
However, there are some interesting tidbits. For example, despite the financial turmoil -- where three deals went bust -- Carlyle was still able to raise $19.9 billion. What's more, the firm invested $12.6 billion in equity last year.
What about the future? Well, Carlyle's co-founder, David Rubenstein, who gave a presentation at the Aspen Global Leadership Network conference, offered some insight on what's ahead, as reported by BusinessWeek.
While he thinks the recession will go away by the end of this year or early next year, the U.S. economy will continue to be under pressure. Basically, we'll need to adjust to a slow-growth environment.
At the same time, Rubenstein expects inflation (yes, it looks like a "stagflation" scenario), with the rate at 4% to 6%. Oh, and the dollar will plunge, as well.
Finally, there will be a spike in taxes on both the personal and corporate levels as we'll need to pay for the huge deficits.
All in all, it's a grim assessment, but Rubenstein realizes that it's possible to make money in any environment -- so long as you make the right bets. Of course, it also helps to have billions of dollars in capital.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook
