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The debate over the value of social networks will go on for months and perhaps longer. Operations like Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube, News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) MySpace, Twitter, and Facebook have huge numbers of users. Facebook now has over 200 million users world wide.

But the websites have done poorly finding revenue models. Industry experts say that Facebook will bring in only $500 million in revenue this year and will probably lose money. That sales figure is remarkably low for a business with such a large audience.

Cerberus, the fund that owns the majority of Chrysler and has made other investments in Detroit, is blocking year-end withdrawals from one of its funds. According to Reuters, "Cerberus plans to suspend year-end withdrawals for up to one year, founder Stephen Feinberg said in a letter to the investors of the fund." The firm will allow investors to take 20% of their year-end withdrawals out in cash, but that's it.

Obviously, Cerberus is being badly hurt by its investment in Chrysler and may get none of that money back if the company goes bankrupt or a government investment wipes out the car firm's obligations to its parent.

That raises the question of how much trouble Cerberus is really in. It has $27 billion in assets under management but it has put money into GMAC which is having trouble due to car and home loans. It could lose part of that money as well.

Cutting withdrawals from its funds may be a signal that other Cerberus investments have gone south. If matters get worse, it may end up being one of those fund groups that simply ends up liquidating itself and sending investors cents on a dollar. In this environment that is happening a lot. The Cerberus investments in Detroit may turn out to be its undoing.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

KKR is one of the oldest and most successful private equities firms in the U.S. The "successful" part may be changing, which puts it in the same boat as a lot of its peers. Shares in Blackstone (NYSE: BX) now trade just above $6, compared to a 52-week high of almost $23 and $35 less than two years ago.

KKR Financial (NYSE: KFN), a spin-out of part of KKR, replaced its CEO and another top officer. According to Reuters, "Last month, KKR Financial suspended its third-quarter dividend as it arranged for more time to pay off its borrowings." Rarely a good sign. Shares of KFN have done much worse than those of Blackstone. The stock has dropped to $0.72 this morning from a 52-week high of $16.78. On the NYSE, that makes it a candidate for delisting.

Firing the CEO at KFN is like putting a band-aid on a mortal wound. Nothing will come of it. The fault of what has happened at the firm is based on the dead market for LBOs and the rapidly falling value of LBOs done over the last three years. KKR may think it looks good to dump the CEO of the unit, but it won't make a difference.

Trying to turn around private equity operations is like trying to turn around big banks. It is not going to work for a year or more, no matter what is done. The cracks in the foundation of the credit world are too systemic. Companies like KKR will have to hope that they can ride it out until there is some recovery in the value of the companies in which they invested.

KFN trades below $1 because the premise that was at the core of taking it public is flawed. The stock will not recover.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

KKR Financial (NYSE: KFN), the publicly traded arm of the famous private equity firm, is doing extremely well. The company's net rose to $49 million from $38 million in the same quarter a year ago. It dropped its provisions for loan loss reserves, a sign that its portfolio should be doing well.

It also cut its dividend to zero. The FT says that it is "a sign that the company is husbanding cash amid continuing market turmoil." Put another way, firms that are doing well may cut dividends just in case the economy and their businesses get worse next year.

That is remarkably troubling news, because it puts payouts at risk even at some large companies, especially those with financial divisions or balance sheets with some portion of their assets in risky securities. It also could hurt the chances dividends will be paid at firms with falling cash flows and substantial debt due next year. On the financial unit count GE (NYSE: GE) comes to mind. On the falling cash flow metric, The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) presents a risk.

Being among America's great companies may not count much any more, especially when it comes to sending cash to shareholders every quarter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Hedge funds have decided to curtail their risks. That means no reward. The reason for putting money into hedge funds, big upside for investors, may be going away.

According to the FT, "Citigroup estimates that hedge funds have now placed $600bn in cash, and that $100bn of this is held in money market funds." These large investment firms do not want to be crushed by the current credit crisis.

The hedge funds are making a mistake by turning away from their charters to use leverage and chancy tactics to make money, even it the odds have become extraordinarily higher.

Distressed assets could become the next great wave of money-making investments. Even the Treasury thinks so. It is telling Congress it can make money on the toxic assets it is buying from banks. Those financial instruments may come back with improvements in the housing and mortgage markets.

The banking market is also awash with corporate IPO debt which often sells for 80% of its face value. Some of these investments will fall apart, but most of the companies are likely to be fine coming out of a recession.

Hedge funds are turning their backs on what may make them extraordinary money machines during a time when potential rewards are reaching a peak.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) is considering buying Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), the nation's largest savings and loan. It sounds like Sandy Weill is back in charge and trying to create the kind of financial conglomerate he built in the 1990s and earlier this decade.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Citigroup and several other banks are reviewing the Seattle thrift holding company's books, which are packed with shaky mortgages."

Just a few months ago, Citi CEO Vikram Pandit was talking about cutting the big bank's expenses by 20% and selling off "non-core" assets. Now he is thinking about buying the most troubled large financial company in America.

Pandit would be better off staying with his first plan. There is a reason WaMu's stock got down to under $2. If mortgage defaults move up and housing prices move down, the mortgage company's financial situation could get much worse.

Pandit is proving to be a "flavor-of-the-month" CEO. Investors never know what he plans to do tomorrow, let alone what he wants to do with Citi over the next year.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) may try to buy Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) again, but it does not want the whole company. It finds the search business useful as part of its battle with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). The content portal business does not have much attraction, and Redmond wants a company like Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to pick up that piece. According to The Wall Street Journal, Microsoft "approached other media companies in recent days about joining it in a deal that would effectively lead to Yahoo's breakup."

The new deal just might work. Yahoo! dropped below $20 yesterday, putting its stock back where it traded before the first buy-out offer. The No. 2 search company's shares reached as high as $33. Investors, especially Carl Icahn, are steamed that Yahoo! did not grab all of that extra money.

Even if Microsoft cannot find a partner to take the Yahoo! content business, it may move ahead. It only has 10% of the US search business. Yahoo! has about 20% and Google around 60%.

Microsoft still needs Yahoo!, and with its stock down by a third, Yahoo! needs a buyer.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

More states have filed charges against Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) for aggressive marketing and giving loans which were highly risky. Washington and California have joined Illinois in the actions.

Up until now, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which is buying Countrywide, has been sticking to its story that it will close on its purchase of the mortgages company. The media has written a million times that the big money center bank might pull out of the deal. That actually became a bit more likely with the new states' actions.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Kurt Eggert, a law professor at the School of Law at Chapman University said, "Countrywide could be required to give back its profit on all those loans and conceivably give back houses on which it has foreclosed." Since that number could be well into the billions of dollars, the potential damages are rising fast.

Countrywide could spend tens of millions of dollars on legal fees and countless hours in court over the next several years. That has become much clearer in the last few days.

BAC would be better off to let CFC go out of business and just buy its assets. Maybe the bank never intended to close the deal. Maybe that was its plan all along.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Overnight, Belgian newspaper De Standaard wrote that, based on its sources, Warren Buffett backs an InBev buy-out of Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD).

Is it any wonder? BUD can try to greatly improve its earnings on its own, but with 50% of the US beer market, that may be hard. It can hope that buying the piece of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo that it does not already own will help profits. More likely it will increase debt or dilute current shareholders.

BUD's problem is that its shares may never see $60 again. They have risen above that on the InBev offer. A look at the company's long-term shock chart shows it has never been this high before.

If Buffett makes his backing of the InBev offer public, most of the BUD investors are likely to follow. He will have done all of them a favor.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Reports are that the heated merger talks between United (NASDAQ: UAUA) and US Air (NYSE: LCC) have hit a wall. Both airlines are probably still talking to AMR (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), and any puddle-jumper with a single-engine plane that they can find.

The airline industry got another dose of electric-shock therapy yesterday when JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) said it would defer delivery on a number of new Airbus jets. Of course, if the airline doesn't make it, the delivery could be dodged altogether.

Managers at United and US Air have probably decided that thousand of hours talking about mergers will not save them. With oil at $130, putting together two airlines is not unlike lashing two drowning men to a leaky raft. Neither will be lonely, but both will still die.

Continued at 24/7 Wall St.

Some of the fat cats in the Senate think that the Sirius Satellite (NYSE:SIRI) merger with XM Satellite (NYSE:XMSR) might be OK if the combined company would give up a large portion of its spectrum. According to The Wall Street Journal, these legislators would propose that the firms "divest as much as half of their combined radio spectrum as a condition of their proposed merger."

Although it is not clearly articulated, the reason for the proposal is so that the US government could, if it wanted to, sell that spectrum to another party to start a new satellite radio company. Even that option would allow the government to view XM plus Sirius as something short of a monopoly.

The Senate and the FCC actually know better than to push their deal. Over the year-and-a-half that the merger has been pending, the two companies have gone from being in bad financial share to being in a dire set of circumstance. Each company has well in excess of $1 billion in debt. Neither has ever made a dime and their losses last quarter were not encouraging.

Continued at 24/7 Wall St.

Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) plans to spin-off its cable company, Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), to shareholders. In the process, the parent will get a payment of $9.25 billion as part of a one-time dividend. It will also let most of its debt go to the cable company, improving the balance sheet by a factor which should matter to shareholders.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Time Warner could use its windfall to cut its debt further, buy back shares or make an investment."

Leaving aside the big debt which the cable company will have to handle, well over $23 billion, Time Warner will be left with cash and an odd assortment of businesses.

One of the key legs will be the magazine operations, which are not growing due to movement of advertising dollars out of print. The company will have its cable programming businesses like CNN and Turner. They have done well, and there is no reason to believe that the trend will change. The TWX studio operations run in a cycle, depending, at least to some extent on whether the movies produced do well.

Continued at 24/7 Wall St.

Carl Icahn is known as much for his mistakes as his successes. His process for making money is based on forcing management to do the right thing. He cannot, however, control the forces of the fates and furies, the trends which wreck businesses or old decisions which can come back to haunt the living.

Most notable among Icahn's recent errors are Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI), a movie rental chain which is part of the Stone Age of media, and Motorola (NYSE:MOT), where the handset operation died so quickly that it did not even make it to the door of an emergency room.

Now, Icahn's latest gambit, a play to get Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) to sell-out to Microsoft (NASDAQ::MSFT) for $33, may have gone off track. Microsoft is no longer interested. So says Steve Ballmer, the Genghis Khan of the software world.

Continued at 24/7 Wall St.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS), the No.1 bricks and mortar bookseller, is looking at a buyout of No.2 player Borders (NYSE:BGP). Neither company has done especially well as readers have turned to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and other places to buy books online. While both of the book chains have web sales operations, they are not large enough to offset the trend to stay out of stores. Adding to their troubles is the fact that younger Americans do not read, perhaps because they don't know how.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Barnes & Noble has about 20% to 22% of the retail book market, while Borders controls 10% to 12%." Since the companies are taking a shellacking from online rivals, The Justice Department may show them some mercy.

A merger won't solve any problems. It may allow for some management and distribution costs to be pulled out. Weak stores can be closed. But the market is wise. Over the last two years, Amazon's shares are up about 130%. BKS is off close to 20% and BGP is down closer to 70%.

Continued at 24/7 Wall St.

The skulduggery of banks who want out of LBOs is already widely known, and expected. Big financial companies have tried to put the legs out from under a deal to take Clear Channel (NYSE:CCU) private, and now appear ready to take a powder on the contract to buy-out Bell Canada (NYSE:BCE).

Leaving aside the ethics of the matter, although that is hardly fair, the $51.8 billion which was offered for BCE was expensive. It was, according to the Guinness Book Of World Records and other sources, the largest deal of its kind, ever.

Now, banks, including Citigroup (NYSE:C), which does not have much of a reputation left at any level, want better terms including higher interest rates. According to The New York Times "The negotiations over the Bell Canada buyout began to fray late Friday."

Article continues at 24/7 Wall St.