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Jonathan Miller, ex-AOL boss, lands in private equity

An interesting release came out at the end of last week when everyone was preparing for the three-day weekend. Jonathan Miller, former Chairman and CEO of Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) America Online unit, has joined General Atlantic, LLC as an adviser to the firm's Media & Consumer sector. General Atlantic didn't just add on Miller. Ross Levinsohn, former President of Fox Interactive Media (FIM) at News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), has also become an adviser.

Before jumping to any conclusions, please be advised that the term "adviser" is far different than "director" or "partner." It is very possible that there will be more to this, but that's all we know for now. Usually this tends to revolve around "identifying or reviewing potential acquisitions" or "finding deals on an unofficial basis" rather than working full-time inside the companies.

General Atlantic has made private equity investments of $1.3 billion in more than 20 companies since 1995. This may be to bring on more partnerships for General Atlantic's existing media properties, and you could argue that it is far more. It looks like we won't know until further announcements hit.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Continue reading Jonathan Miller, ex-AOL boss, lands in private equity

Cramer's screaming bloody murder....literally

On today's Stop Trading! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer said Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) should be keeping its mouth shut until it is ready to start buying shares. The fact that headlines will be interpreted poorly means that it shouldn't speak until it's behind. Cramer started screaming louder than he's ever been on recent TV that Bernanke and Poole and the Fed is asleep and they are not aware of how bad this situation is out there. He said the Fed should be lowering the rate at the discount window. This is a different kind of market. Of the 14 million mortgages in the last three years, almost seven million were in teaser or ARM or non-traditional mortgages. All of those homes are potentially at risk in his mindset.

It looked to me like CNBC's Erin Burnett looked a little taken aback by this today, and it's hard to blame her. We just needed Vince McMahon and a Smackdown to rival today. This meltdown in subprime still has a long ways to go before all the dust settles. This has already toppled some firms and we won't know where the real bottom is until after the fact. The ugliness isn't just about financial and private equity no longer able to borrow and deal...it's much worse than that. The impact of this looks like it is going to end up being far worse than the derivative implosions in the bond market from 1994 to 1996. The difference is that Joe Q. Public isn't seeing their treasury notes lose as much.

Continue reading Cramer's screaming bloody murder....literally

Cramer's two financial service buyout picks

Jim Cramer came onto MAD MONEY tonight saying he thinks that Total Systems Services Inc. (NYSE: TSS) is one that can be taken over next in a sector and $40 would be a fair price based on Alliance Data prices. Synovus Financial Corp. (NYSE: SNV) is the parent and Third Point is now being an activist investor. The earnings growth of 18% is reason enough to own this. Cramer did note that he is concerned that Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NYSE: ADP) might be acquired first.

Before you trust Cramer, there are some other instances to look at: Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) was just acquired, First Data Corp. (NYSE: FDC) is going private, and even Bisys Group Inc. (NYSE: BSG) got gobbled up. Keep in mind that some of the premiums in this sector have been small. ADS was nearly a 20% stock jump, but BSG was a horrible low-premium buyout. In making any "buyout projections" you really need to make sure that these stocks are ones you want to own on your own. Picking a company for a buyout just "for the speculation of a buyout" is a strategy that can be more than painful regardless of how nutty private equity deals get.

Continue reading Cramer's two financial service buyout picks

Cramer's take on private equity eating Cheesecake (Factory)

Jim Cramer's "private equity buyout target" tonight was Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE). He doesn't care that the company is up 10% after earnings and he doesn't think it is too late to get on board. He likes that the cash flows aren't living up to their potentials. He thinks this would be easy to turn around. CAKE can actually raise its prices because they are low for quantity and quality. Privateers could bolster its supply side, do a little more brand promotion via advertising, add more stores and close underperforming stores. In addition to looking attractive to private equity, the Cheesecake Factory CEO is the son of the company's founders and the shares should be a lot higher.

Cramer did claim that he is practicing "sane investing in an insane world" and he stressed to only buy companies that you want to own anyway. So at least he specified this after a couple nights of forcing the goo-goo-ga-ga love for buyouts the last two nights. Thankfully, he restated that tonight. You HAVE TO like a stock you buy for the fundamentals (or at least the technicals) instead of just for a buyout pick. The one thing that is funny about this pick is that I was doing some work on this one for my own reviews of it as a buy on its own, without being a buyout potential. I also determined it could raise prices, like Cramer noted, but I thought of something else as well. Food is a huge portion of a restaurant's operating costs, and if you have ever ordered an entrée at Cheesecake Factory or at Grand Lux you will agree (even if Cramer didn't note it) that these entrees are way too large for one person. CAKE could easily trim 5% to 10% off of its portions and not change prices. The savings would go 100% to the bottom line.

As far as the other data, the 23.6 forward P/E ratio isn't cheap and the 12-times cash flows isn't dirt cheap. But a revved-up management team could easily fix both of these. Both the hallmark Cheesecake Factory and the Grand Lux are better brands than others and these restaurants are rarely operating without being full, from my own personal experience. So if you make the argument that prices can be hiked and it can chop costs, then it's actually possible and the numbers could be far better than they have been.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Continue reading Cramer's take on private equity eating Cheesecake (Factory)

This week in mergers...and rumors

Some mergers and rumors this week have impacted many stocks. Here are some brief summaries of the deals worth noting with ongoing and outstanding issues:

The early early departure of BP, plc's (ADR) (NYSE:BP) CEO is fueling more M&A speculation around it and Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) (NYSE:RDA-A); but this could have major hurdles to overcome.

Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:ZBRA) made a great acquisition of WhereNet to expand RFID operations and this is the sort of acquisition that can help it get its stock mojo back.

Placer Sierra Bancshares' (NASDAQ:PLSB) acquisition by Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) creates the need to revisit my old BAIT SHOP call on First Community Bancorp (NASDAQ:FCBP) that has been active since December 2005.

The Gap Inc.'s (NYSE:GPS) recent management changes might just make the company even harder to find a buyer for at an attractive price above current levels.

A fellow Bloggingstocks contributor here notes AirTran Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAI) higher bid for Midwest Air Group, Inc. (AMEX:MEH).

Another fellow Bloggingstocks contributor keyed in on this ongoing hostile takeover cat fight between US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE:LCC) and Delta Airlines, Inc. (OTC:DALRQ).

Western Digital Corp. (NYSE:WDC) was a bit of a scare earlier this week as the price was getting bruised, but keeping some discipline and not blinking kept any real change of heart from happening. This is still a fairly cheap stock that an overseas or private equity firm wouldn't get scared away from and it hasn't shown any real negative reversal that would blow-out the logic for it being a takeover target.

Have a great 3-day weekend.

Jon ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; He does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Continue reading This week in mergers...and rumors

Icahn interviewed by Bartiromo: Discusses private equity, Time Warner, and best investing

Maria Bartiromo on CNBC was shown numerous times today in different segments interviewing billionaire raider and buy-out magnate Carl Icahn on the state of the market now. He discussed Time Warner Inc., (NYSE: TWX), hedge funds, private equity, and other topics

On Time Warner, Carl Icahn said Parsons did the right thing with the buyback. After the $20 billion buyback he said it was one of the best investments he made. He also said Bewkes was doing a great job. The shares are up now and just put in another recent (not all-time) record close today at $20.43, up 0.5% on 33.5 million shares traded.

Icahn noted that the problem with most private equity funds is that they are too leveraged. They may help run the company better, but the private equity guys have too much leverage in general. He thinks this will ultimately lead to problems.

Icahn also said the best investment you can make is to buy companies and change their management. He should know. Back in September, Forbes listed him as the 24th richest American with a $9.7 billion net worth.

Continue reading Icahn interviewed by Bartiromo: Discusses private equity, Time Warner, and best investing

ETF Launching to Track Private Equity (PSP)

Private Equity can now be somewhat traded as an ETF, an exchange traded fund. PowerShares, distributed by A I M, is launching an ETF based on private equity. The ticker on the American Stock Exchange will be listed as "PSP" and the formal names is The PowerShares Listed Private Equity Portfolio. It is based on the Red Rocks Listed Private Equity Index.

The ETF comprises of companies whose principal operations are investing in and lending to privately held companies. They have to have a minimum market capitalization rate of $50 million and a closing price above $1.00. It is diversified from 3 perspectives: stage, capital structure, and industry focus. They also consider valuation metrics, financial data, historical performance, and diversification.

The Listed Private Equity Index is noted to have a correlation coefficient of 0.703 to the S&P 500 Index over the last 10 years. The dividend yield on the index in the last 12 months was noted as roughly 5.15%, but that number also includes special dividends.

Continue reading ETF Launching to Track Private Equity (PSP)

"Blank Check IPO's" now heading for China

There is a new prospectus filed for "China Opportunity Acquisition Corp." that is a blank check company IPO filing, but this one is for a China play. The operation is a newly formed blank check company organized for the purpose of acquiring an operating business with principal operations located in the People's Republic of China. This IPO lists $6.00 as the offering price for 1 unit, consisting of 1 share of common stock and 1 warrant. This deal is being brought to you by EarlyBirdCapital, Inc. and it will have 24 months to complete an acquisition, otherwise it will cease operations and return the escrowed funds.

While this is actually common and fairly generic to see in a "blank check" IPO prospectus ahead of an offering, you just have to love this quote from the prospectus: "To date, we have not selected any target business or target industry on which to concentrate our search for a business combination..."

Here is the board of directors: Harry Edelson, 73; Chairman/CEO. Nicholas Puro, 48; President, Secretary, Director. Barry M. Shereck, 64; CFO and Director. Rose-Marie Fox, 55; Director. It also lists Dr, Daxi LI, Bailin Zheng, and China Investment Group LLC as special advisors. Both management and the advisors have some experience in China, and all do in VC. The directors and officers had a prior share issuance. In August, 2000 the company issued 1.5 million shares of common stock for a total of $25,000.00, or a purchase price of $0.0167 per share.

Here is more information on EarlyBird.

This is not EarlyBird's first blank check IPO, and it isn't even its first blank check IPO for China. Chardan North China Acquisition Corporation (CNCA-OTC) and warrants (CNCAU-OTC); and Chardan South China Acquisition Corporation (CSCA-OTC) and warrants (CSCAU-OTC); and China Unistone Acquisition Corp. (CUAQ-OTC) are all prior Chinese blank check deals from EarlyBird. You will have to review the charts and news headlines or filings to garner your own opinion, but these stocks have shown some interesting stock moves and have trading histories with volume trading on most days.

EarlyBird also was behind a company called GuruNet, which is now Answers.com (ANSW-NASDAQ). That was only an $11.75 million security sale, and ANSW is now valued at $85 million after its wild stock rides in 2004 to 2006. ANSW climbed from $5.00 to $25.00+ before coming back down to today's nearly $11.00 price.

These blank check IPO's are often thought of as sketchy companies because they are deemed the equivalent of public-private equity or the step brother. They are in essence a future reverse merger where a public shell is acquired and a private company is rolled up into the operation, although you really have to trust in the management and underwriters since you do not know what you are ultimately investing in. The street is usually skeptical on blank check IPO's, but there is some silver lining in that EarlyBird has experience doing these deals as their specialty and they have actually shown that they have been able to make the stocks move. We'll have to see what the real operating intent is before signing off on this one.

If you would like to view details on management and their holdings and experience, you can find it here on a longer post that is a bit lengthier in detail.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St; he does not own positions in the companies he covers.

Continue reading "Blank Check IPO's" now heading for China

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