Analyst Upgrades

• BofA/Merrill upgraded ConocoPhillips (COP) to neutral from underperform following the better-than-expected Q2 report. The firm has a $61 price target on shares.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Citrix Systems (CTXS) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and raised its target for shares to $65 from $45. Shares were also upgraded to neutral from underperform at Cowen following the better-than-expected Q2 report.
• Macquarie upgraded Arch Coal (ACI) to outperform from underperform and raised its price target to $29 from $23. The firm expects PRB priced to move higher given increased domestic and export demand combined with supply shortfalls.
• Boeing (BA) was upgraded to hold from sell at Societe Generale.
• Equinix (EQIX) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Williams-Sonoma (WSM) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.

The new joint-venture formed by Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhilips (COP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) as a rapid response system to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill is best characterized as too little, too late.

The companies have initially committed a measly $1 billion to the force. A fund with a starting point of $20 billion-$30 billion would have been more appropriate and practical. The enormity and complexity of the BP's (BP) Deepwater Horizon oil spill demonstrates how quickly a contain-and-cap operation can shoot over $1 billion. Oil fell 56 cents to $78.74 per barrel in Friday morning trading.

On Wednesday, Investors pushed call option prices higher in the savings & loan industry and pushed put option prices higher in the electric utilities industry.

Any time the volatility skews above 1.00, it is an indication that calls are more expensive than puts. Typically, when calls are more expensive than puts, it means the demand for calls is greater than the demand for puts because investors believe the stock is going to rise in the future and they want to take advantage of that movement by buying calls.

The opposite is also true. Any time a volatility skews below 1.00, it is an indication that puts are more expensive than calls.

Bullish Volatility Skews

- Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. (HCBK)---part of the Savings & Loans industry---came in at the top with a volatility skew of 1.13. This may come as a surprise as HCBK is down -6.89 percent for the past month.

Stocks have fallen over the past month and certain stocks have fallen considerably. If you have lost equity recently and can find similarly positioned stocks, it may be wise to consider some lateral moves. Selling one stock and buying something comparable allows you to claim a loss while still remaining fully invested.

In this way you do not have to observe the 30-day rule where you cannot claim a loss in a stock sold today if you buy it back until after 30 days have past. In 30 days the market opportunity to repurchase the shares of the company you sold at good price may have also past.

The endless oil rising from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico has sunk BP (BP) stock; investors fly away, while the vultures are circling above.

It is sad to learn of BP's poor adherence to basic safety precautions and the conflicts between managers on the drilling rig. It appears from the news reports that have trickled out that this mess was created by more than damaged equipment and poor decisions. The actual decision-making process on the leased Transocean (RIG) platform was faulty from the beginning. Sadly BP is not alone in this regard -- just the most recently exposed.

With no end in sight to the undersea oil gusher in the gulf and mounting

clean-up costs, investors have started to take a hard look at the reality of the disaster's impact on BP (BP). The company has shed more than $70 billion in value since April 20 when an explosion on one of its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico sparked the worst crude oil disaster in U.S. history.

Some say that things could get even worse as the blowout on the ocean floor continues to wreak havoc and the price tag continues to mount. But many others say the sell-off is overdone, and that investors would be wise to buy shares at what could be bargain valuations.

Integrated oil giant ConocoPhillips (COP) posted a decent first quarter result of $1.47 per share, (excluding items) compared to the Thomson/Reuters First Call estimate of $1.38. Conoco earned 54 cents per share a year ago.

Production, however, dipped to 1.83 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, (bpde), compared to 1.93 million bpde a year ago.

The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for LOW are $6.26 to $7.53. Each EPS estimate looks about 10% high, according to my analysis.

By and large, earnings expectations remain high as earnings season rolls on this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect double-digit annual earnings growth from Avon (AVP), Kellogg (K) and Whirlpool (WHR) to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), DuPont (DD) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).

Big Oil steps into the earnings spotlight this week as well. Wall Street is anticipating big profit growth from BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), which we look at more closely below, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), as well as from Apache (APA) and Occidental (OXY). Even Hess (HES) is forecast to have swung to a profit from last year's net loss.

Analyst upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Sonoco Products (SON) to buy from hold after the company reported Q1 results and raised guidance. The firm upped its target for shares to $38 from $32.
• Baird upgraded Western Digital (WDC) to outperform from neutral following the solid Q3 report and guidance. The firm raised its target to $50 from $48.
• Goldman upgraded Qwest (Q) to neutral from sell. Qwest is being acquired by CenturyLink (CTL).
• Hershey (HSY) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Principal Financial (PFG) was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS.
• Monster Worldwide (MWW) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.

This was one of those market days that you could try to blame on earnings season starting out, but it may be nothing more than valuations catching up to stocks at DJIA 11,000 and after the huge stock gains in 2009 and 2010. Investors and traders alike are still using DJIA 11,000 as the battleground. Today's Treasury Budget Deficit came out at -$65.4 billion versus $62 billion expected.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 11,019.50 +13.53 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,197.27 +0.79 (0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,465.99 +8.12 (0.33%)

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded ConocoPhillips (COP) to outperform from perform after the company sold its stake in Syncrude. The firm has a $70 price target for shares.
• Leerink upgraded UnitedHealth (UNH) to outperform from market perform. The firm sees upside to the company's 2010 guidance and finds shares attractively valued at currently levels.
• Citigroup upgraded both Mirant (MIR) and RRI Energy (RRI) to hold from sell after the two companies agreed to merge.
• Cooper Companies (COO) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Expedia (EXPE) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• A123 Systems (AONE) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Blame a poor US Treasury auction, blame poor home sales data, or blame Portugal after a Fitch downgrade. Regardless, the markets needed a breather and may need even more of a breather ahead. Depending upon which stock indexes you track, we had been in a constant gain environment with the market up 10 of the past 11 days.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,836.15 -52.68 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,167.72 -6.45 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,398.76 -16.48 (-0.68%)

ToP Day Trader Alerts
Top Stock and Market Rumors
3 IPOs today

Oil is trading higher on the day, but prices have fallen a good bit from the high they hit immediately following this week's inventory report.

Prices rose as high as $83.03 a barrel, and are currently trading at $81.97, up $0.48.

The reason why prices spiked so much following the report was the initial reaction to the smaller than expected rise in crude reserves. Analysts had been looking to see a jump of 2.1 million barrels last week, but the report indicated that inventories rose by a much smaller 1.4 million barrels.

Analyst Upgrades

• Auriga upgraded Intel (INTC) to buy from hold to reflect the stock's relative valuation after channel checks indicated PC shipment plans continue to be solid. The firm raised its target price on shares to $24 from $20.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded RenaissanceRE (RNR) to buy from hold on valuation and believes stock buybacks and reserve releases will drive the company's growth. The firm raised its target price on shares to $65 from $59.
• UBS upgraded Philip Morris (PM) to buy from neutral based on increased confidence in its earnings outlook and relative valuation. The firm raised its target to $54 from $49.
• Chevron (CVX) was raised to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Deutsche Bank (DB) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

While most investors are fretting the markets recent contraction, you can be quite confident that "my pal Warren" has a smile on his face, as does Peter Lynch, Ken Heebner, Bill Miller, Bruce Berkowitz, and any number of fellow value investors that know now may be a time of opportunity. That is because they have the experience and understanding to pounce when they have a chance to buy things cheap.

This is the fourth installment of my series to discover just that: cheap stocks. If you would like to get on board from the beginning then review the initial post which screened for stocks with lower than market average P/E ratios, see Serious Money: Market Looks Cheap to Me -- 35 Stocks. In the second installment, I looked at yield and PEG ratios: Serious Money: Still Cheap Market -- 35 Stocks + Yields & Growth. Then I moved on to the the P/S and P/CF metrics in Serious Money: Cheapest Stocks Yet -- From 35 to 26, cutting nine stocks.