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Merger arbitrage is getting scary

When a new investor first studies merger arbitrage, the concept seems incredible -- the ability to make almost guaranteed profits, especially because it seems that deals are pulled or rejected ever so rarely. But as this new investor begins following the market more, he quickly learns that deals are in fact pulled. Recently, we saw the firms interested in purchasing SLM Corp. (Sallie Mae) (NYSE: SLM) pull their deal. As you can see from the chart on the right, this killed the arbs involved in the deal.

I don't think this is going to be the last time that a potential private equity deal is pulled, much to the disappointment of arbs. As I've been covering on BloggingBuyouts, I think the credit situation in the United States is quickly turning sour. Many professionals in the fixed income space who I talk to constantly talk about not being paid enough interest to justify the risks that they are taking. As a result, I believe private equity firms are going to have much more trouble in borrowing the money they need to continue their leveraged buyouts. I think arbs are going to face more pain in the future.

Continue reading Merger arbitrage is getting scary

DaimlerChrysler finally admits Chrysler is for sale

DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) finally admitted that its trying to sell its money-losing Chrysler unit.

Speaking at the company's annual meeting, Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche said the automaker was "talking with some of the potential partners who have shown a clear interest," according to media reports. He declined to provide specifics, saying it would be "irresponsible."

This is good news for Daimler's shareholders. One told Bloomberg News that he would be "grateful" if the company got rid of Chrysler. Shares of the automaker have soared 25 percent since February 14 when it said it might get rid of Chrysler.

The Blackstone Group and Centerbridge Capital Partners plan to bid for the automaker, Bloomberg says, adding that other potential bidders include Magna International, an auto parts maker, and Cerberus Capital Management.

Unfortunately, the automaker's problems go beyond just money. Like the other members of the Big 3, Chrysler is continuing to lose marketshare to its Japanese rivals. That situation isn't going to change anytime soon.

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