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Chasing Value: Cheap Stocks by the Book

In case you need to be reminded to look closely at the books, today's poster boy for erroneous ledgers, Bernie Maddoff, should be a constant reminder. Furthermore, when you are looking at the books, remember that Benjamin Graham, mentor to "my pal Warren," advised buying stocks for less than their intrinsic value. And book value is the starting point in attempting to establish that.

Two weeks ago, I posted an update on my toxic stock picks. These were six unloved stocks where I felt the stage was set for market beating returns. The same is true again for today's market-beating group, although it is not the headlines that tied this group together, but their standout bargain metrics.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Cheap Stocks by the Book

Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG

Buy on fear sell on greed is being put to the test today, as I post the first update to my ranting three weeks ago that the six most highly traded stocks receiving the most bad press would be a great contrarian investment. I went on further to claim that the punishment was exaggerated and that this group would easily out perform the over all market.

Normally, I would not post so soon but the market has done an about face (again) and I wanted to take a glance. The stocks I suggested buying were Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), BP (BP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Transocean (RIG).

Continue reading Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG

Chasing Value: Buffett Must Be Buying Oil

Royal Dutch ShellUntil recently, my largest positions were in financial stocks Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC). As a contrarian investor, I do buy on fear and sell on greed as "my pal Warren" has advised for many years. This has worked out to be very profitable over the past 18 months. However, in the past 30 days the financial stocks have dropped to second place in favor of oil and gas stocks.

I think the economic recovery is moving at a snail's pace, lowering anticipated demand for oil while gas was already depressed based on the same factors and the addition of numerous new large supplies. Add to this the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and the public's already negative sentiment about oil companies and you have the makings of depressed pricing in the sector.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Buffett Must Be Buying Oil

Automatic Alarm System Was Disabled Before Deepwater Horizon Blast

Transocean RIG logoThe U.S. Coast Guard and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement are investigating events that occurred before the BP blast.

Workers who survived the blast have filed suit against Transocean Ltd. (RIG), the company that owned the rig. Michael Williams, a rig worker on the Deepwater Horizon, filed suit against Transocean in federal court in New Orleans, April 29. Williams identified several safety violations aboard the Deepwater Horizon.

Continue reading Automatic Alarm System Was Disabled Before Deepwater Horizon Blast

Chasing Value: Shocked By Toxic Stock and Still Finding Deals

Yesterday I was shocked by the response to a poll I conducted in this very same column where I suggested that six out-of-favor stocks were a buy and would out perform the over all market. The results left me puzzled for several reasons.

For one thing I have been blogging for Aol. for over four years and I cannot remember an occasion that there was so much unanimity on anything before. I expected approximately equal votes for each of four possible responses to my question, and an appreciable number that might think I was off my rocker. Instead, I was jolted to a new reality when 84% of the respondents agreed that the six toxic stocks would outperform.

The six stocks are Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE), BP p.l.c. (BP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Transocean (RIG). I thought I was taking a contrarian position and based on recent market activity that would seem to be the case. This raises another question. If my readers are any reflection of the market, how could the market move in the opposite direction of such overwhelming sentiment?

Continue reading Chasing Value: Shocked By Toxic Stock and Still Finding Deals

Chasing Value: Buying a Toxic Portfolio -- BP, RIG, C, GS, BAC and GE

Unless you are the ultimate contrarian, Friday was not a good day for the stock market. While there are always plenty of great companies to invest in, I've chosen a group of stocks that everyone else actually hates.

The stock market was none too pleased with the earnings reports from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE). I was quite surprised that the trio, which are the most heavily traded stocks on the market, jolted investors as they did. I think all three are a buy.

Not to leave out any of the recently orphaned stocks, let's add three more bad boys to the picture: BP (BP), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Transocean (RIG). They have been hurt by the misdeeds of management, which resulted in crushing blows to shareholders. These three stocks are very scary: The prospects for a turnaround remain bleak in most everyone's eyes, with little chance of the negative headlines or business improvement changing the outlook anytime soon. Could the timing be right to buy these monsters too?

Continue reading Chasing Value: Buying a Toxic Portfolio -- BP, RIG, C, GS, BAC and GE

Time to Step into Oil Service Names?

Oil-related stocks have been significantly beaten down in the wake of the BP (BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The market could be suggesting, however, that now may be the time to jump back into this sector.

Frankly, the energy complex as a whole looks like the most compelling segment of the stock market right now, although it does come with significant risk as many traders and investors have already been burned trying to pick a bottom over the last few months.

In order to mitigate risk in this sector, investors could consider putting together their own oil-related ETF: Determine the amount of capital that you want to commit to this sector and then divide it up between a number of companies in order to reduce company specific risk. This is similar to buying an ETF such as the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF (OIH), but allows you to pick the specific component companies.

Continue reading Time to Step into Oil Service Names?

Traders Buy Plunge Protection on Transocean Ltd.

Transocean RIG logoShares of oil-spill accessory Transocean Ltd. (RIG) are currently trading near $47, but one investor is bracing for a drastic downside move from the security. On Wednesday, a long-term options trader picked up some plunge protection on RIG by purchasing a large number of deep out-of-the-money puts.

Specifically, several large blocks totaling roughly 5,000 contracts traded near the ask price yesterday on RIG's January 2011 25-strike put. Implied volatility on the option rose 2% by the close, indicating rising demand for this LEAPS strike. Open interest climbed overnight by 4,710 contracts, confirming that these were newly opened bearish bets.

Continue reading Traders Buy Plunge Protection on Transocean Ltd.

Three Busted Blue Chips to Sell

After the stock market's antics in May, things appear to be on the mend in June with the broader market trending upwards -- especially thanks to a bullish start of this week as the revaluation of China's yuan took center stage. But a rising tide does not lift all boats. Some stocks have been pushed down for a reason following the stock market's consolidation last month, and these picks need to be trimmed from your portfolio immediately.

Here are the three worst blue chip stocks according to my latest analysis of the market:

Continue reading Three Busted Blue Chips to Sell

JPMorgan Shifts Coverage of Offshore Drillers

JPMorgan Thursday morning rearranged its ratings on four oil service companies -- a reflection of the broker's shift toward large-cap oil firms and away from offshore drillers. While JPMorgan upgraded Baker Hughes (BHI) to overweight and Weatherford (WFT) to neutral, it cut Ensco (ESV) to neutral and reiterated Transocean (RIG) at neutral.

The brokerage's logic behind the BHI, WFT and ESV calls makes sense. But I am not too sure about the move on Transocean. Keeping in mind that Transocean is the owner of the Deepwater Horizon rig (leased to BP) that blew up and caused the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, JPMorgan believes that Wednesday's 8% drop in the stock was based on emotion, saying the stock is a "moving target."

Continue reading JPMorgan Shifts Coverage of Offshore Drillers

Analyst Calls: BEC, BRCM, CP, CVS, DO, GLW, INTC, LMT, NE, NVDA, RIG, RTN ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Bernstein upgraded Corning (GLW) to outperform from market perform based on Gorilla glass prospects and valuation. The firm raised its price target to $22 from $21.
  • RBC Capital upgraded Beckman Coulter (BEC) two rating levels to outperform from underperform, citing valuation and customer checks that indicate high retention rates. The firm upped its target for shares to $65 from $55.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Canadian Pacific (CP) to outperform from underperform. The firm expects Canadian Pacific to have stronger-than-average Q2 volume growth, improved productivity and notes leverage to growth in Asia, among other reasons for the upgrade. The firm raised its target to $75 from $59.
  • Freeport McMoRan (FRX) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
  • Solera (SLH) was upgraded to strong buy from buy at Needham.
  • Jefferies upgraded IPC The Hospitalist Co. (IPCM) to buy from hold.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BEC, BRCM, CP, CVS, DO, GLW, INTC, LMT, NE, NVDA, RIG, RTN ...

Serious Money: Tax Savings, Lateral Moves

Stocks have fallen over the past month and certain stocks have fallen considerably. If you have lost equity recently and can find similarly positioned stocks, it may be wise to consider some lateral moves. Selling one stock and buying something comparable allows you to claim a loss while still remaining fully invested.

In this way you do not have to observe the 30-day rule where you cannot claim a loss in a stock sold today if you buy it back until after 30 days have past. In 30 days the market opportunity to repurchase the shares of the company you sold at good price may have also past.

Continue reading Serious Money: Tax Savings, Lateral Moves

BP May Disappear While Trudging Through Its Own Sludge

Is this the end of BP?The endless oil rising from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico has sunk BP (BP) stock; investors fly away, while the vultures are circling above.

It is sad to learn of BP's poor adherence to basic safety precautions and the conflicts between managers on the drilling rig. It appears from the news reports that have trickled out that this mess was created by more than damaged equipment and poor decisions. The actual decision-making process on the leased Transocean (RIG) platform was faulty from the beginning. Sadly BP is not alone in this regard -- just the most recently exposed.

Continue reading BP May Disappear While Trudging Through Its Own Sludge

Options Update: BP Volatility Elevated on Uncertainties

BP's stock price (BP) recently declined $6.11 to $36.81 in pre-open trading. The April 20th Gulf of Mexico explosion that led to a deepwater rig sinking and the spilling of oil is operated by Transocean (RIG) in a field 65% owned by BP with minority partners Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Mitsui. Crude oil futures are recently down 2.33% to $72.25 according to Bloomberg. BP overall option implied volatility of 46 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price movement.

Stocks with implied volatility above 30-day mean; Vivus (VVUS), Rambus (RMBS), ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) according to IVolatility.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst Calls: BA, C, CLDT, DNB, DWA, JCG, MGM, RIG, SLRY, USB, WDR ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Oppenheimer upgraded Citigroup (C) to outperform from perform, citing an attractive valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm has a $4.58 price target for the stock.
  • Macquarie upgraded Transocean (RIG) to to outperform from neutral and has price target of $85 on the stock. The firm believes bad news is already priced into shares.
  • JPMorgan upgraded U.S. Bancorp (USB) to overweight from neutral, citing the recent pullback in shares and a lower impact from the financial reform bill. The firm has a $31.50 price target for the stock.
  • Boeing (BA) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Health Net (HNT) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
  • Vale (VALE) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at HSBC.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BA, C, CLDT, DNB, DWA, JCG, MGM, RIG, SLRY, USB, WDR ...

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