Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded CME Group (CME) to buy from hold to reflect valuation and the company's improving trends. The firm raised its target price for shares to $325 from $320.
• JPMorgan upgraded Big Lots (BIG) to overweight from neutral. The firm believes the company's stabilizing comps and accelerating square foot growth should drive multiple expansion and raised its target price for shares to $38.
• Soleil upgraded PacWest Bancorp (PACW) to buy from hold as it views the company's bulk loan sale positively. The firm has a $24.50 target on the stock.
• Clean Harbors (CLH) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• FARO Tech (FARO) was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.

Here's an intercurrency spread trade recommended by BNP Paribas SA. A spread trade is when you sell one currency and buy another, looking for the trade to go in your direction. In this case, the recommendation is to sell the U.S. dollar and buy the Swiss Franc. This means the expectation is for the dollar to go down and the Swiss Franc to go up.

BNP Paribas is one of the world's largest currency traders. The basis for the trade is technical. In other words, the recommendation is made strictly on price movement, without regard for fundamental factors such as strength of one economy over the other.

During a crisis, never mind what the media or government officials are saying, follow the money.

The Mercantile Exchange (CME) posts open contracts for each currency traded -- both long and short positions. By subtracting them you can get a sense of whether traders are net long or short. In the case of the euro, traders are net short 40,000 contracts or nearly $8 billion.

Meanwhile, officials of struggling countries, Greece, Spain and Portugal are telling the media that they have things under control. Elena Salgado, Spanish finance minister and Jose Manuel Campo, her deputy flew to London to meet with bondholders, the Financial Times reports. They want to reassure promises to cut Spain's budget deficit by 3% of GDP by 2013. But then the treasury wants to raise 116.7 billion euros.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded CME Group (CME) to Buy from Hold and has a $330 target on the stock. The firm believes increased regulatory concerns have created a buying opportunity and notes that CME Group's fundamentals are stable-to-improving.
• Susquehanna upgraded Priceline.com (PCLN) to Positive from Neutral and has a $230 target on the stock. The firm believes Priceline.com likely outperformed expectations in Q4.
• Citigroup upgraded AutoZone (AZO) to Buy from Hold citing an attractive valuation, favorable industry trends, and the potential for margin expansion. The firm raised its target price on shares to $188 from $176.
• Genzyme (GENZ) was raised to Sell from Conviction Sell at Goldman.
• Disney (DIS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded at Collins Stewart to Buy from Hold.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Aflac Inc. (AFL) posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings, though revenue fell short, and offered rosy guidance.
• Avon Products Inc. (AVP) posted Q4 earnings growth that met analysts' expectations but shares sold off.
• Cisco Systems inc. (CSCO) higher Q2 earnings topped the consensus estimate but cash flow fell.
• CME Group Inc. (CME) fell short of analysts' Q4 profit expectations, resulting in price-target cuts.
• ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings and revenue that boosted shares.

Specifically, KBW lowered its forecast from $360 to $350, while Susquehanna chopped its price target from $370 to $345. Shares of CME finished Thursday at $269.29, so both brokerage firms are still anticipating some healthy gains from the stock during the next year. In fact, both targets exceed the equity's average 12-month price target of $342.35, as reported by Thomson Reuters, which implies expected upside of more than 27% from yesterday's close.

Investors in developing countries no doubt wonder which countries that issue debt are safe and which ones could default. CMA Datavision, a subsidiary of CME, has put together the "Sovereign Risk Monitor."

The Risk Monitor uses five-year credit default swaps (CDSs) and ranks the countries according to volatility. It uses the percent of change to determine the ranking of these countries. The new index is called the cumulative possibility of default (CPD). If, for example, a country has a 20% CPD, it has a one in five chance of defaulting in the next five years. Also included is their most recent credit rating.

On Friday October 16, CME Group (NYSE: CME) decided that it wants to allow customers across the globe to use gold, physical gold, as collateral on all of its exchange products (alternative investment products, futures and options, etc). The member notice was sent out on late Friday, giving instruction on how the use of gold would work. Firms are allowed to post gold as collateral up to $200 million, the collateral will cover performance bond (margin) requirements.

As an observer of financial markets, I've been stunned by the recent growth of options trading. Options and futures trading have become huge among individual investors, and the interest in the topic is only getting bigger.

So, who benefits most from the surge in options and futures trading? CME Group (NASDAQ: CME).

CME Group is the company that operates the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade, the place where options and futures trades actually take place. Whenever you place an options or futures transaction, the only sure winner in the game is CME Group.

As many shoppers have realized in this recession, just because something is cheap doesn't mean it's a bargain.

This is especially true in the stock market, where you definitely get what you pay for.

There have been plenty of low-priced deals on stocks lately, as plenty of good companies watched their shares take a beating in our economic crisis. But that doesn't mean all cheap stocks are worth buying. Unless that bargain goes up in value, it's not a bargain.

What does this mean? It means that trades will clear through an independent counter party called a clearinghouse. What then is a clearinghouse? A clearinghouse is a central counter party that serves as buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer. Commodity futures trades pass through a clearinghouse.

What kind of numbers are we looking at? The interest rate swaps market is a $403 trillion market.

• Canaccord upgraded Imperial Oil (NYSE: IMO) to Buy from Speculative Buy following an increase in crude oil forecast.
• BT Group (NYSE: BT) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.
  
• Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Sandler O'Neill.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Target (NYSE: TGT) to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $52 from $45 citing reduced inventories, some credit stability, and an improved back-to-school period.
• Credit Suisse said concerns regarding Safeway's (NYSE: SWY) price position are overblown and that earnings risk is limited. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral and raised the target price to $25 from $22.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to Outperform from Perform as it believes the story is underappreciated following the recent sector rally. The firm has a $14 price target on the stock.
• CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) was upgraded to buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at FTN Equity.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) to Outperform from Perform on expectations the stock will outperform in the second half of 2009 due to easier comparisons and a "deeper and longer" restructuring cycle. The firm has a $62 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Cigna (NYSE:CI) to Hold from Sell to reflect reduced balance sheet risk following the company's capital raise and the potential for a PBM sale. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $13.
• Goldman expects Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE:CCE) to benefit from favorable soda demand and lower commodity costs. The firm upgraded shares to Conviction Buy from Buy and has a $20 target on the stock.
• Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill.
• CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.
• Allegiant (NASDAQ:ALGT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  

• Jefferies upgraded MICROS Systems (NASDAQ:MCRS) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's cost cutting is running ahead of Street expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes companies will beat EPS estimates given lower commodity costs, focus on cost controls, and reduced drag of inefficient, new restaurants on unit level margins. Additionally, they believe reduced mortgage payments from refinancing will incrementally help traffic.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its target price to $15.
• American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Micron (NYSE:MU) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.