BusinessWeek magazine recently ran an article highlighting the best private equity takeover candidates according to Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS). Goldman's investment banking department ran certain proprietary screens to identify which companies would be most appealing to private equity buyers.
Private equity, which is a softer, fancier title than leveraged buyout, has become the investment style favored by many institutional investors as well as large pension funds. Many institutions are allocating 5-10% of their assets to private equity investing. It is a long term, fairly non-liquid, approach to buying, focused on re-building and growing existing businesses.
The dollar amount of recent transactions has not yet hit the ceiling and probably won't for a while. The next barrier to crack is $50 billion, then who knows how high it could go. As sensational as the headlines can be, the multi-billion dollar takeovers are not at the point of ridiculousness yet. The number one key component in analyzing a potential transaction is what is the cash flow yield? For example, the pending First Data Corp (NYSE: FDC) acquisition at $29 billion, eye-popping as it appears, actually carries a minor amount of risk. Why? Say the acquirer KKR puts down $5 billion and leverages the other $24 billion. The $24 billion can be borrowed at about 5-5.5%, but the First Data Corp existing operations yields about 8% in free cash flow, or about $2.2 billion. This cash flow will more than cover the debt service and this is all taken into account before cost-cutting measures and growth initiatives are put into place. The concept is the growing business will correspondingly grow the cash flow to $2.5-2.8 billion. Not only does this cover the debt service, but the underlying growth will enhance the value of the business as well. Then the private equity firm hopes to IPO the newly revamped company and earn large performance fees. Under normal circumstances, this is a win-win situation.
The Goldman Sachs list is interesting and covers a vast array of different businesses. From Supervalu (NYSE: SVU) to Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), the businesses listed are basically recession-proof and high cash generators. The predictability of the businesses fits the private equity mold of "do not surprise me with volatile revenues and earnings." Keep it simple and keep it consistent.
Others on the Goldman list include AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC) in the pharma services and products business, BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) and Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS), the huge information technology and business process-outsourcing firm. All have the cash flow machine in place with decent to good growth rates fueling the businesses. All 21 companies on Goldman's list could be in play along with another 1,000 companies too.
Private equity firms will see a cash infusion of several hundred billion dollars this year and next, which when put to work should collectively represent between $1.2-1.5 trillion worth of acquisitions.So we are going to see many, many more announcements of "blockbuster" acquisitions.
The next time your broker or advisor recommends a stock to you, after asking about the PE and other usual questions, be sure to ask about the cash flow yield!!
In the next week or so, I will write another article about the coming shortage of publicly traded shares of stock to satisfy mutual fund needs. Interesting times . . .
Georges Yared is the chief investment officer of Yared Investment Research.