Europe is hot, if you don't look too far over your shoulder. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index played well through the stock market recovery of 2009, ticking up 28% (60% from its March 2009 low). This was the index's best annual performance in a decade.
Basic resources and banks gained 100% and 46%, respectively, this year, after having turned in dismal performances the year before. China helped, as well, with its elevated economic growth forecast good for another 0.5% gain during the shortened week of Christmas.
American International Group (AIG) is a step closer to paying back the U.S. government. The insurer has announced that it's planning to float American International Assurance on the Hong Kong stock exchange. A date hasn't been selected yet, but the decision isn't much of a surprise, given that AIG moved it into a special unit, a signal that some sort of liquidity event was on the way.
According to Robert Benmosche, the company's CEO, "The planned listing is in the best interests of policyholders, distribution partners, AIG shareholders and US taxpayers." He continues to say that AIA's roots are in Asia, which made a Hong Kong listing "a natural choice." The timing, according to AIA president and CEO Mark Wilson will depend on marketing conditions and regulatory approvals.
Late Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is preparing to relaunch its stalled construction projects in Macau, China's hot gambling region. Financial woes forced Las Vegas Sands to walk away from the two construction sites a year ago, but newly secured funding means that the casino company can resume work on the projects as soon as January.
Las Vegas Sands disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday that it secured $1.45 billion in financing from banks, and the firm is looking to lock down an additional $300 million. The gaming issue is also attempting to raise as much as $3.83 billion by launching an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong of its Macau assets, about $500 million of which will be used to fund construction on the stalled sites.
Car sales in the United States might be struggling, but in China, they are moving product. Passenger vehicle sales spiked 48% last month, its biggest gain since February 2006. Chinese buyers picked up 872,900 cars in June 2009, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, and total auto sales (with buses and trucks included) climbed 36% to 1.14 million year-over-year.
Government officials are proclaiming the country's "downward slide" over, and aggressive goals are being set. The full 2009 vehicle sales forecast was raised from 10.2 million to 11 million, as sales for the first half of the year were up 18% year-over-year to 6.1 million.
Worldwide government leaders hoped their recent summit would calm investors even though they didn't really come up with anything specific. But it looks like a non starter. Asian markets opened down on Monday morning, showing disappointment that more didn't come out of the summit, European markets followed suit and U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower open as well. Also, news broke that Japan and Hong Kong slid into recession.
The value of both the Yen and the U.S dollar rose as investors looked for safety. Their actions show they were disappointed with the summit and with the fact that world leaders didn't take more concrete steps to avert a global recession.
What did the Group of 20 agree to do? They all agreed to act independently to be sure financial markets, products and participants are subject to supervision, but no coordinated plans were developed. The fact that the leadership of the U.S. is in flux for the next couple of months until President-elect Barack Obama is inaugurated in late January didn't help matters. While he sent Representatives to the meeting only President George Bush attended.
It looked like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was going to go out of the business of selling "unlocked" iPhones, which are set up to work on any wireless network. Its new 3G model was going to be sold through about two dozen carriers worldwide. They would be the sole distribution method for the new handset and would make money on the wireless subscription plans marketed with the phones.
It looks like things are not working out that way. According to the AP, "Apple Inc. is putting on sale unlocked iPhone 3G in Hong Kong, allowing people to use it with any mobile phone carrier." The unit will cost consumers $695.
Apple may be taking a significant misstep. If it alienates its carrier partners by undercutting their ability to make money on the product, over time they could push competing products from companies, including the Samsung Instinct and several products that Nokia (NYSE: NOK), the world largest handset company, will introduce later this year.
Apple is a bit vulnerable now. Its 3G iPhone has run into connection problems in the U.S. That may have made some customers less likely to run into stores to get the new devices. Damaging relationships with its distribution operators by offering unlocked iPhones gives the competition an opening.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) is set to revamp its manufacturing operations in the U.S. in response to rising gasoline prices that have led to a shift toward fuel-efficient models. Officials at the auto maker said key moves may include dropping plans to produce the Highlander car-SUV crossover vehicles in a Tupelo, Mississippi plant, instead producing the Prius at the plant.
Tomorrow Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to launch its second version of the iPhone but it also will be opening its APP Store to software developers--an online bazaar--with the intent of bringing more applications to the phone as it has with music via its iTunes stores. Apple's goal is to turn the iPhone into a gadget that more resembles a personal computer, the Wall Street Journal reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to sources, the South China Morning Post reported that Wynn Resorts Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong that would raise as much as $3B. The source said that the fund-raising plan has yet to be approved that that the company is a "long way" from a share sale and "might never do it."
WEB SITES:
In an interview, Bloomberg reported that Former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said there is an increasing chance the U.S. may need to bail out "insolvent" Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM), or Fannie Mae, and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE), or Freddie Mac. Poole said data provided show that the fair value of Fannie Mae's assets fell 66% to $12.2B in Q2, while Freddie Mac owed $5.2B more than its assets were worth during the quarter.
Will investors soon get over worries about losses from subprime mortgages? As Doug indicated this morning, the answer for now is "nope." Today overseas markets are definitely paying attention to renewed fears about credit markets. The Dow was down over 56 points yesterday and today, Asian market sectors including banking, brokerage and insurance took a plunge as well. Francis Lun with Hong Kong's Fulbright Securities told MarketWatch, "After the drop on Wall Street, people are wary about further write-downs related to subprime mortgages."
With earnings season just kicking off today with Alcoa's second quarter results after the close, should we also be bracing for worse-than-expected reports from banks and brokerages? Today hat's the sentiment in Hong Kong and other Asian markets, where the Hang Seng index fell 3.2% in overnight trading and the Nikkei lost 2.5%.
Asian regional markets were sitting on the same worries pressuring U.S. markets, according to David Cohen with Action Economics. He posited that most Asian indexes were under pressure "from the same forces weighing upon markets globally, hostage to oil prices, and fears of stagflation." This morning at least, investors are bracing for U.S. markets to get worse before they get better.
While Asian stock markets like Vietnam were the darlings of investors during 2006-07, market action and economic fundamentals may be a precursor to another Asian financial crisis like we had 11 years ago. The Vietnam market has lost more than 55% during '08, and with surging inflation, the currency is showing cracks of weakness as well.
May's inflation rate surged by 25.2%. Reading a recent Reuters report, one gets the feeling that there is a big problem on the horizon: "All readings from the economy are not healthy," a Vietnamese dealer with a foreign bank said. "The economy is not performing as well as expected by investors so they are pulling out and this trend is not short-term because we see nobody arriving. It is now an approach to a crisis."
Vietnam's dong is trading a multi-month lows, and more importantly the offshore forwards market has priced in a 30% depreciation in the currency. Countries including the Philippines, China, India, Thailand and even Hong Kong are all experiencing rapid inflation with no end in sight. This sounds all eerily familiar to what happened 11 years ago.
Investors should pay close attention to what's happening in South East Asia, as it could potentially have unpleasant ramifications for the rest of the globe.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any other mentioned, as of 6/3/08.
The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is planning to launch Blackstone Altius Advisors, a business focusing on event-driven investments in the Asia Pacific region and led by Aaron Nieman. The business will be based in Hong Kong and additional team members will operate from New York and Tokyo.
Aaron Nieman, Atius' Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer, joins Blackstone after significant experience at S.A.C. Capital Management's Asia Pacific merger arbitrage division and at Lehman's Brothers Tokyo and Asia Pacific Global Trading Strategies Division. Also joining the team as Chief Operating Officer is Christopher Pesce. He has experience as Bank of America's Global Head of Prime Brokerage and with Goldman Sachs in New York and Hong Kong.
Blackstone Altius Advisors joins Blackstone Capital Partners and Blackstone Real Estate Partners, as well as a hedge fund and two closed-end mutual funds in Blackstone's Asia operations.
Shares of Blackstone were up a marginal $0.04 at $19.01 in early market trading, and now shares are down marginally by $0.05 at $18.92.
Alibaba more than doubled on its first day of trading in Hong Kong today. After the trading day ended, Alibaba took its place as Asia's second largest Internet company behind Yahoo! Japan. All in, Alibaba is now valued at over $23 billion.
With shareholders including Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), Alibaba joins other high-flying Asian IPOs in 2007. I wrote briefly yesterday about the PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) IPO, which after it saw its value triple, is now the world's first trillion dollar company.
Part of what makes the Alibaba IPO so interesting is the firm's growth prospects. China's largest Web trading site for companies predicts profit will almost triple this year on increased spending in the world's fastest growing major economy.
Markets in Asia took a beating as the Hong Kong Hang Seng fell 5%. Key China stocks moved down sharply. China Mobile (NYSE:CHL) fell 7%. China Petroleum (NYSE:SNP) fell over 10%.
The Shanghai Composite fell 2.5%.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) volatility Elevated into Macao Resort Hotel opening. LVS opened the Venetian Macao Resort Hotel today. Sheldon Adelson, chairman & chief executive officer, said "it is no overstatement to say that the opening of Venetian Macao represents a massive paradigm shift for Macao and the future of tourism development in Asia." Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) says "the scale is enormous and the detail impressive." LVS over all option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Ameristar Casinos (NASDAQ: ASCA) implied volatility Elevated at 43. ASCA, a Las Vegas based gaming and Entertainment Company, is recently down $0.55 to $28.39. ASCA has a market cap of $1.6 billion with long term debt of $878 million. ACSA over all option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.
Ian Wyatt, editor of The Growth Report, chose LJ International Inc. (NASDAQ: JADE) as his favorite stock for 2007. Its 173% gain as of 6/1/07 has made it the number one performer among all stocks in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Here is Ian's original recommendation for JADE and his current favorite stock for the rest of 2007.
Updating his recommendation, the advisor now says, "LJ International continues to capitalize on China's extraordinary growth and accompanying demand for luxury goods -- specifically high-end jewelry -- by expanding its network of ENZO branded jewelry stores.
"Since 2004, when LJI began opening retail jewelry stores in China, it has opened more than 45 stores, established a presence in all of China's major cities, including Hong Kong and Macau, and established itself as China's #1 foreign branded jewelry retailer (Hong Kong and U.S. based), ahead of Tiffany & Co.
"The company has plans to more than double its network to 100 stores by year-end 2007, ahead of the Beijing Olympics. These stores generate robust sales, and, more impressive, nearly half of the existing stores are already profitable. Continued growth of its retail operations will enhance LJI's profitability since ENZO gross margins are twice those of the wholesale business.
Last week my fellow blogger Kevin Kersten pointed out some pretty compelling evidence that some insider information had been leaked regarding the News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) deal, and now it looks like he hit the nail on the head. A husband-and-wife pair from Hong Kong are officially the first people to have charges brought against them for trading on insider information.
According to the charges that were made today, Kan King Wong and Charlotte Ka On Wong Leung, made millions off illegal trading of Dow Jones stock in the days leading up to the announced deal. All said and done it looks like the man and wife team were able to bank over $8 million in profit from the purchase of 415,000 shares of Dow Jones stock in the 2 weeks leading up to the announcement.
As the story unfolds I expect that these will not be the last charges that the SEC issues in their investigation. Let's not forget that there are still around 10,000 call options on Dow Jones that traded in the weeks before the deal was announced that still need to be accounted for. If you think that the $8 million profit this couple made on the stock purchases was impressive, I can assure you that the profits off the 10,000 suspicious call options that were traded will be much more impressive. Consider that each of the 10,000 contracts represents 100 shares of stock and we are talking about control over 1 million shares. We have definitely not heard the last out of this story just yet.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
BloggingBuyouts is provided for informational purposes only. Nothing on the service is intended to provide personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions that you make. The contributors who provide the content of BloggingBuyouts may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities discussed at the time of writing and they may trade for their own accounts. Such holdings will be disclosed at the time of writing. By using the site, you agree to abide to BloggingBuyouts' Terms of Use.
BloggingBuyouts is the best resource for news, opinion, and research on the least understood, most powerful force driving financial markets today -- private equity investing.
For more coverage of America's favorite publicly traded stocks, check out BloggingStocks