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Is Krispy Kreme really on the buyout block?

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (NYSE: KKD) gave some very unusual volume trading alerts this morning, and the culprit here is nothing less than buyout offer chatter. Yep, it seems that the rumor mill has the fried dough maker as one of the next buyout candidates.

It took only about 35 minutes for us to see double the normal average daily trading volume. The culprit is a private equity buyout of $7.25 per share, yet no one understands if the "offer" is real. MGL Asset Management Group LLC out of Charlotte has been named as the suitor. Whether or not that is the case is something different entirely.

If you know the history of this company you probably understand that it is synonymous with "disappointment." The buyout chatter price is $7.25, yet the 52-week trading range is $2.23 to $9.48. You can determine on your own whether or not an offer is a good as a take. Chatter on top of that is yet another issue.

Despite this having been covered on CNBC and despite the written reports above, it would take a lot more faith than sense to believe this until actual facts are released from either the private equity firm or Krispy Kreme itself.

Beware the buyout rumors

Herb Greenberg wrote an excellent column discussing one of the potential pitfalls of the current buyout boom: Rumors are flying around like crazy, and a lot of them aren't true. Earlier this year, buyout rumors surrounded Krispy Kreme(NYSE:KKD), and they have so far proven to be unsubstantiated. Investors who bought into the rumors have lost a good chunk of their "investment" (Speculation is the word for buying on hopes of a buyout).

Here's my advice for how to avoid the pitfalls of buyout rumors, most of which lead to nothing: Ignore them. Focus on buying companies trading at compelling valuations and buyouts will come along often enough. At more than 1.5 times sales, it should have been obvious that the Krispy Kreme rumors were going nowhere: Dunkin' Donuts had recently been taken private at about 0.5 times sales.

The thing to remember is this: If you're an insider, then it's illegal to trade on information you have about an upcoming buyout. If you're not an insider, then you're just guessing along with everyone else. Speculating on buyouts is a loser's game.

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