What does Kirk Kerkorian know that others on Wall Street don't know?

That was one analyst's meditation after the billionaire investor's Tracinda Corp. indicated in an SEC filing that it has increased its stake in Ford(NYSE:F) by about 20 million shares to a 6.49% stake from 5.5%, The Associated Press reported Thursday. Tracinda now owns 140.8 million shares of Ford.

Ford's shares were virtually unchanged on the news, gaining 5 cents to $6.27 in Thursday morning trading.

Kerkorian now owns 140.8 million shares in the U.S. automaker, and stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said Kerkorian is either venturing forth where no seasoned investor would go, or is on to something.

A high-risk investment

"On its face, this is a high-risk stake, a calculation that could hurt dearly. There's not a lot running in Ford's favor right now, from an operational standpoint," Bauer said. "Ford wants us to believe their transformation is progressing reasonably well, but it isn't. I've seen little in Ford's fleet or prototypes that suggest a whole new generation of young adults will suddenly run out and buy Fords, and they are still behind-the-curve on efficiency, styling, innovation, and must-have vehicles." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Ford.

Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian said he has added $100 million to his pool of capital for buying shares of Ford, and may borrow as much as $600 million to buy shares, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

Kerkorian now says he may borrow up to $600 million, up from $500 million, from the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), according to the filing, Bloomberg News reported.

Ford's (NYSE: F) shares fell 40 cents to $6.75 in mid-day Friday trading, amid a broader market sell-off.

Kerkorian's announcement occurred one day after Ford advised analysts and investors that it had abandoned its profitability target for 2009, due to rising steel and gasoline costs, among other factors, The Washington Post reported Friday.

Ford's shares: not overpriced

Independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer said Kerkorian's tactic, should he follow-through and increase his 5.5% Ford stake, is daring, but risky. "Let's just put it this way: Kerkorian would not be radically overpaying for Ford at these price levels," Bauer said.

Defining periods of irrational exuberance can be difficult. However, one method to do so might simply be to look at the headlines. Here are this morning's:

• Crescent Real Estate Equities to be purchased by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Real Estate
• Payless ShoeSource (NYSE: PSS) to acquire Stride Rite (NYSE: SRR)
  
• Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) controlling shareholders, the Bancroft family, meeting to review News Corp (NYSE: NWS) offer
• Sallie Mae making management changes for its take-private transaction
• Alcan Inc. (NYSE: AL) rejects Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA)'s $27 billion offer as inadequate
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) approach by Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp requires delicate strategy.

The headlines are not too different from the 1980s LBO boom when virtually every headline was associated with a hostile buyout of some sort. Are we approaching the end of the buyout binge? Most likely not. These periods can last for years.

This buyout boom has been fueled by a number of factors. The most important factor has been undervalued stocks, which, in many cases, still remains. In the post tech-telecom bubble of the 1990s, investors went into a cocoon while U.S. company management continued to grow earnings and increase returns on investment.

What will end this buyout boom? My bet is a massive bull market which pushes valuations off the radar screen of private equity.

With the Chrysler Group in play, the company's parent -- DaimlerChrysler AG (NYSE: DCX) -- is fielding a variety of big-money calls. The buzz is that private equity firms Blackstone Group, Cerberus Capital Management and Centerbridge Capital Partners are preparing bids.

But, hey, it's really not a mega auto deal without billionaire Kirk Kerkorian, right?

Well, today his investment firm, Tracinda Corp., made a $4.5 billion cash offer for Chrysler Group. According to the Wall Street Journal, he is even willing to make a good faith deposit for $100 million [subscription required].

Keep in mind that Kerkorian is a billionaire for a reason: He knows how to structure deals. So his offer comes with some conditions, one being that the Chrysler Group will need to strike a good deal with the UAW. Moreover, there needs to be a way to deal with the hot potatoes of pension and health-care liabilities.

I think I would want the same things if I were shelling out $4.5 billion.

It's also getting Wall Street excited -- as there may be real interest in Chrysler Group. DaimlerChrysler's stock was up as much as 4.9% to $84.75 on the news. DCX is now up 2.85% to $83.38.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.