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M&A Update: Diebold volatility low, arbitrageurs expect finalized UTX deal

Diebold (NYSE: DBD) is recently down 32 cents to $39.97.

United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) announced on March 3 that it had made a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of DBD for $40 per share in cash. This afternoon Dow Jones reported UTX's CEO called $40 a share bid for DBD a good offer, and DBD is not a must have.

DBD June option implied volatility of 18 is below its 2-month average 24 of according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

M&A Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

United Tech's odd saga and huge buyout premium for Diebold

United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) has offered to acquire Diebold, Inc. (NYSE: DBD) for $40.00 per share in cash, which is a total enterprise value of approximately $3 billion. To top it off, this represents roughly a 66 percent premium to Friday's close of $24.12. The full release is here.

In this offer, United Technologies said that it has pursued Diebold for roughly two years. The company is also leaving room for negotiation on the table: "Additional value could be identified, and a higher price proposal for Diebold's shares could result. We are prepared to begin immediately and believe a definitive agreement can be completed within thirty days."

Interestingly enough, a February 19 letter from John Lauer, CEO and chairman of Diebold says that the company has considered the offer and turned it down. The letter also says, "In addition, we respectfully request that, from here forward, neither you nor any other representative of UTC contact any member of the Diebold Board."

One thing that should be noted is that Lauer is a fairly entrenched CEO, and he might not want to sell the company at any price. Ultimately, that won't be his decision. But for now it is.

This is also a 45 percent premium over the average price of the last 3 months. While it is a monster premium, the 52-week trading range is $23.07 to $54.50. Diebold shares are trading at $39.60 in pre-market trading, only a 1% discount to that $40.00 offer. It seems that the market is not only voting for the deal. It looks like they expect a higher price.

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